The most-traded SHFE lead contract broke through support and declined, with inventory pressure intensifying price risks [Lead Futures Brief Review]

SMM November 14 News:

The most-traded SHFE lead 2512 contract opened at 17,580 yuan/mt during the day. It rebounded slightly at the beginning of the session, but failed to hold steady after a previous technical breakout, leading bulls to reduce positions. SHFE lead fluctuated downward, touching a low of 17,465 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 17,495 yuan/mt, down 155 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.88%. It has now fallen below the 10-day moving average, recording a large bearish candlestick.

As the SHFE lead 2511 contract approaches delivery, delivered lead ingots continue to arrive at warehouses. Combined with the spot-futures premium divergence stimulating suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses, an expected delivery volume of 15,000 mt is projected to drive social inventory further upward. The spot-futures divergence pattern and inventory pressure are resonating, significantly increasing the downside risk for lead prices.

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